President Donald Trump has a 10-point lead over Joe Biden in Utah with less than a month to go before the presidential election.
The survey from Y2 Analytics found Trump ahead of Biden by a roughly 50% to 40% split among likely voters, while about 10% said they favored another candidate. The number of respondents who said they were undecided was tiny and would make up about 1%.
Y2 surveyed 1,214 likely voters online from Sept. 26 to Oct. 4. The latter half of that time period covers the aftermath of Trump’s bombastic debate with Biden as well as the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization. The statewide poll, released Monday, asked a number of questions diving into how voters perceive the president, what they think of the Supreme Court nomination fight and if they believe Trump, Biden and others are religious.
Trump’s lead over the former vice president is not surprising, but it’s indicative of how unpopular the president is in deep-red Utah. Trump carried Utah in 2016 with only 45.5% of the vote. Currently, that level of support is only slightly higher, while the poll shows high marks for other Republicans in Utah.
“Despite the conventional wisdom, it’s clear the president has convinced a chunk of additional Utahns to join his side over the last four years,” said Danny Laub, a national political consultant with POOLHOUSE.
Utah Republicans are solidly behind Trump (81%) while Democrats overwhelmingly prefer Biden (95%). Nearly half of independent voters line up behind Biden (49%) while just 26% support Trump. The other 24% of independent voters say they support another candidate.
“It’s hard to see any additional shift coming in any meaningful way in the closing weeks of this campaign,” added Laub.
Most Utah voters are already locked into their choice at the top of the ticket with 44% of Trump voters say they will “definitely” vote for him, while 36% say the same about Biden. Just 4% of Trump voters say they might change their mind as do 2% of Biden voters, leaving not much room for movement in the final month before Election Day. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
It’s difficult to effectively gauge how Trump’s level of support has changed because the 2016 results were complicated by the presence of independent candidate Evan McMullin, who reeled in 21.5% of Utahns who cast ballots. Y2 found that those Utahns who voted for McMullin four years ago are almost evenly splitting their vote this year — 41% for Biden and 40% for Trump.
There is a considerable gender gap in Utah. Male voters favor Trump by 13 points while women favor Biden by 16 points. Combine the two numbers and you get a 29% division between the two candidates, which is similar to the 30+ gender margin seen in national polls.
Trump’s polling numbers have taken a massive hit since the first presidential debate last week. Prior to the debate in Cleveland, Biden led Trump by an average of 7 points nationally. A raft of new polls conducted since the debate showed Biden’s lead increased anywhere from 8 to 14 points.
As part of the survey, respondents were provided with opposite phrases and asked to indicate which one best reflected their impression of the president.
Some 49% said they see him as a man who cares about America, while 51% of respondents said they think he cares only about himself. Respondents were evenly split on their assessment of Trump as a weak or strong leader but a majority, at 62%, said they viewed him as dishonest.
Battle for religious voters
But few Utahns said they see either candidate as particularly religious.
Asked whether they view the president as a man with religious values, 63% of poll respondents said they did not, while 37% indicated they do think he is a person of faith.
And when ranking Trump’s religious faith on a scale from one to seven, with seven being “very religious,” 37% of respondents chose one, saying they did not think the president was “religious at all.” Just 4% put him at the highest end of the spectrum, while 60% ranked his faith as a level “three” or lower.
Asked about the Democratic ticket, 26% of respondents said they didn’t see Biden as religious at all, while just 7% said they saw him as “very religious.” A little over half ranked his level of faith as a “three” on the scale or lower.
Still, the Y2 Analytics poll showed that just under half of active Latter-day Saints said they’ll definitely vote for Trump, at 49%. And another 10% said they’d likely vote for the president, though 6% said they could change their mind and 4% said they would pick Trump if they “had to choose.”
Some 22% of active Latter-day Saints said they’ll cast a vote for Biden.
Some 37% of poll respondents placed Pence on the highest end of the religion scale, while just 5% of respondents said they viewed him as “not religious at all.” Overall, 82% of respondents ranked Pence’s religious faith as higher than a four out of seven.
Supreme Court confirmation fight
When Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Sept. 18, Senate Republicans announced plans to move rapidly on confirming her replacement. Just days later, Trump nominated U.S. Circuit Court Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
In 2016, Republicans famously refused to hold a confirmation hearing or vote for Judge Merrick Garland, who was nominated by then-President Barack Obama to fill the opening created by the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell argued that, in an election year, the voters should have a voice in the Supreme Court nomination and give the choice to the winner in November.
Most Utahns say they don’t want the Senate to follow the same playbook they did four years ago. The Y2 poll found that 57% want them to vote on a nominee before the Nov. 3 election, while 43% say the Senate should wait and allow the winner of the 2020 election to nominate a new Justice. The poll found that 89% of Republicans want the Senate to move quickly while 98% of Democrats and 63% of independent voters say the Senate should wait.
The Salt Lake Tribune will update this article.
Los reportes de noticias de esta sección no son oficiales ni son provistos por Santos de los Últimos Días. La fuente pertenece a la prensa internacional y no es del todo confiable, por lo que puede haber algunas imprecisiones en la información. Para ver el artículo completo original, consulta la siguiente Fuente: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/05/new-utah-poll-has-trump/